Over the past few weeks I’ve met with 50 or so recruiting leaders from major corporations around the country.  Interestingly, nobody is doing nothing.  A third are increasing their hiring forecasts, a third are hiring more recruiters, and a third are getting ready for a sign that hiring will increase.  It appears that the stars are finally in alignment.  So get ready to rumble.  We’re in for a triple witching hour hiring tsunami of epic proportions, and if you’re not ready now, it’s probably too late.

Following are the factors that will cause a bulge in hiring and a frenzy of recruiting activity.  This bulge will last about six months with activity then tapering off as the game of musical chairs begins to unwind and people settle into their new jobs.  But expect a second wave of churn about six months later, as those just hired discover their new grass isn’t much greener.  This wave will be less intense than the first one, but still significant.

Of course, all of this is mere speculation on my part, but if seems to be a fairly reasonable reading of the tea leaves, especially if you’re a coffee drinker.

1. Those who have jobs want different ones.  A recent Conference Board survey indicated that 55% of those currently employed are dissatisfied with their jobs.  These people are already starting to look, and once people actually start switching jobs, this trickle of activity will gain momentum resulting in an unanticipated surge in replacement hiring.  Worse: those voluntarily leaving will be some of your best people, and it will be difficult to replace them with people of equal capability.
2. There will be a solid increase in new hiring as company revenue and profits continue to improve.  As a result, filling seats will be more important that cost per hire.  Existing real-time sourcing tools will be overwhelmed.  By real-time I mean relying on job postings vs. talent pools or deep networking to find prospects.  To offset this, additional resources (RPOs, TPRs, contract recruiters) will be needed to meet both replacement and new hiring demands.  Compensation is likely to increase as competition for the best candidates increases.
3. More “sideliners” will emerge from the woodwork.  People who haven’t been looking will re-enter the job market increasing the total supply of candidates applying for these new jobs.  This will put an increased burden on existing HR/Recruiting processes and slow things down just when things need to speed up.

This scenario seems fairly reasonable, but feel free to comment on The Recruiter’s Wall if you have an alternative view or different perspective.  With this in mind, here’s a quick checklist of what you need to do to get ready:

A Checklist for Getting Ready for the Incoming Hiring Tsunami

1. Update your hiring forecast with a healthy increase in voluntary turnover.
2. Get a bigger budget approved ahead of time.  Planning is a better management technique than reacting.
3. Start getting additional resources lined up now before someone else does.  Recruiters are now getting multiple offers, so expect hourly rates to edge up.
4. Train your recruiters in Performance-based Hiring to make sure they can find the 80% of the candidates who aren’t looking and who won’t apply online.  This is still a relatively untapped talent-rich market.
5. Evaluate your technology.  It’s probably too late to implement Jobs2Web, but LinkedIn Recruiter is a great resource you can add right away.  Check out Monster’s new resume database search tool, too, but ask them if you can search the oldest resumes first.  These are the untouched, and include many gems.
6. Forecast reqs per recruiter by month and make sure you aren’t overwhelming your team when the rush begins.  As part of this prioritize your staffing needs and get hiring managers to agree.
7. Don’t post individual requisitions.  Instead combine similar jobs, create SEO Microsites, and use CRM, chat, and Twitter to communicate.  If you use a two-step apply process you’ll also reduce your OFCCP and EEO reporting requirements.  ( This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .)
8. Put a This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it together to widen your net to include all possible channels.
9. Implement a super proactive employee referral program.  ( This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .)
10. Start using Performance Profiles instead of job descriptions to widen your sourcing reach even further.  You’ll find more diverse candidates this way, as well as more high-potentials.
11. Make sure your managers don’t blow away good candidates by showing them This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .  We just created a two-hour online intro course to get them started on this.
12. Read Hire With Your Head  this week for more ideas on how to find candidates, tame your hiring managers, and attract more top people without overdoing the compensation piece.

Ride the wave.